Projected final regular-season wins = current record + a Monte-Carlo simulation
(10,000 runs) of every remaining game. Win prob per game = logistic(margin / 6.8) from the
same opponent-adjusted OE / DE / pace ratings as the live board, plus a 2.7-pt home edge. Each
run also perturbs team ratings (uncertainty shrinking with games played) so the bands are honest,
not overconfident. No market lines — compare to the books yourself.
Team
Record
Left
Proj Wins
Proj Record
80% Range
Playoff%
Distribution
Minnesota
28-7
9
35.0
35-9
33–37
100%
Golden State
24-9
11
31.3
31-13
29–33
100%
Las Vegas
24-11
9
30.1
30-14
28–32
100%
Atlanta
21-12
11
28.4
28-16
26–30
100%
Dallas
20-15
10
27.4
27-18
26–29
100%
New York
22-14
9
27.4
27-18
26–29
100%
Indiana
22-12
10
27.2
27-17
25–29
100%
Washington
19-14
11
24.1
24-20
22–26
100%
Los Angeles
12-21
11
17.0
17-27
15–19
0%
Portland
14-20
10
16.8
17-27
15–19
0%
Phoenix
13-22
9
16.6
17-27
15–18
0%
Chicago
12-22
10
15.4
15-29
14–17
0%
Toronto
10-23
11
15.2
15-29
13–17
0%
Connecticut
8-25
11
9.9
10-34
8–11
0%
Seattle
7-29
8
9.3
9-35
8–11
0%
Proj is the mean simulated win total; 80% range is the 10th–90th percentile
of the distribution (shown as the sparkline). Playoff% = share of sims a team finishes top-8
by wins (a proxy — no formal WNBA tiebreakers). Ratings from wnba_ratings_2026.csv;
schedule/records from ESPN (records via recordSummary, so the Commissioner's Cup final isn't
counted). Tune WINPROB_SCALE / RATING_NOISE_BASE against realized results.
Updated Aug 15, 05:21 PM ET. Informational only.