SGP / Correlated Parlay EV

Price a same-game parlay with the correlations the multiplied legs ignore. Enter the game's spread & total, add legs, paste the book's quoted SGP odds — get the fair correlated price and the EV.

League

Home spread

Game total

Quoted SGP odds

Stake

Legs — Team/Side/Stat/Player apply where relevant; Odds & Corr are optional (props only)

	Type	Team	O/U	Stat	Player	Line	Odds	Corr
1
2
3
4
5
6

Spread lines are the chosen team's handicap (Home −4.5 → enter team Home, line −4.5; the dog +4.5 → team Away, line +4.5). Player-prop Odds = the book's price on your side — the stat mean is backed out from it (de-vigged); leave blank to treat the line as the player's median. Corr overrides the default correlation to the anchor (pts/ast/PRA → own team score: 0.50/0.45/0.50 · reb → game total: 0.20).

Model: margin & total are the same Normal model as /pricer (league SDs, total-aware scaling); game legs are exact functions of (margin, total); player stats are latent Normals anchored to team score / game total. ~50k sims, deterministic per input. Integer-line pushes aren't modeled — prefer .5 lines. Same-game only: legs from different games are ~independent, so plain multiplication (see /calc) already prices those.