Spread & Total Fair-Price Calculator
Enter the current spread & total. See the fair (no-vig) price for every alternate spread and total, plus the moneyline implied by the spread.
Fair Moneyline
-224 / +224
Win Prob (Fav / Dog)
69.1% / 30.9%
Spread SD
11.0 (scaled from 11.0)
Total SD
16.0 (scaled from 16.0)
Alternate Spreads
| Fav | P(Cover) | Odds | Push |
Dog | P(Cover) | Odds |
| +0.5 |
70.7% |
-241 |
— |
-0.5 |
29.3% |
+241 |
| -0.5 |
67.5% |
-208 |
— |
+0.5 |
32.5% |
+208 |
| -1.5 |
64.2% |
-179 |
— |
+1.5 |
35.8% |
+179 |
| -2.5 |
60.7% |
-155 |
— |
+2.5 |
39.3% |
+155 |
| -3.5 |
57.2% |
-134 |
— |
+3.5 |
42.8% |
+134 |
| -4.5 |
53.6% |
-116 |
— |
+4.5 |
46.4% |
+116 |
| -5.5 |
50.0% |
-100 |
— |
+5.5 |
50.0% |
-100 |
| -6.5 |
46.4% |
+116 |
— |
+6.5 |
53.6% |
-116 |
| -7.5 |
42.8% |
+134 |
— |
+7.5 |
57.2% |
-134 |
| -8.5 |
39.3% |
+155 |
— |
+8.5 |
60.7% |
-155 |
| -9.5 |
35.8% |
+179 |
— |
+9.5 |
64.2% |
-179 |
| -10.5 |
32.5% |
+208 |
— |
+10.5 |
67.5% |
-208 |
| -11.5 |
29.3% |
+241 |
— |
+11.5 |
70.7% |
-241 |
Alternate Totals
| Line | P(Over) | Odds | Push |
P(Under) | Odds |
| 217.5 |
69.1% |
-224 |
— |
30.9% |
+224 |
| 218.5 |
66.9% |
-202 |
— |
33.1% |
+202 |
| 219.5 |
64.6% |
-182 |
— |
35.4% |
+182 |
| 220.5 |
62.3% |
-165 |
— |
37.7% |
+165 |
| 221.5 |
59.9% |
-149 |
— |
40.1% |
+149 |
| 222.5 |
57.4% |
-135 |
— |
42.6% |
+135 |
| 223.5 |
55.0% |
-122 |
— |
45.0% |
+122 |
| 224.5 |
52.5% |
-110 |
— |
47.5% |
+110 |
| 225.5 |
50.0% |
-100 |
— |
50.0% |
-100 |
| 226.5 |
47.5% |
+110 |
— |
52.5% |
-110 |
| 227.5 |
45.0% |
+122 |
— |
55.0% |
-122 |
| 228.5 |
42.6% |
+135 |
— |
57.4% |
-135 |
| 229.5 |
40.1% |
+149 |
— |
59.9% |
-149 |
| 230.5 |
37.7% |
+165 |
— |
62.3% |
-165 |
| 231.5 |
35.4% |
+182 |
— |
64.6% |
-182 |
| 232.5 |
33.1% |
+202 |
— |
66.9% |
-202 |
| 233.5 |
30.9% |
+224 |
— |
69.1% |
-224 |
Team Totals — derived from the spread & total
Favorite — projected 115.5
| Line | Over | Odds | Under | Odds |
|---|
| 111.5 |
66.0% | -194 |
34.0% | +194 |
| 112.5 |
62.1% | -164 |
37.9% | +164 |
| 113.5 |
58.2% | -139 |
41.8% | +139 |
| 114.5 |
54.1% | -118 |
45.9% | +118 |
| 115.5 |
50.0% | -100 |
50.0% | -100 |
| 116.5 |
45.9% | +118 |
54.1% | -118 |
| 117.5 |
41.8% | +139 |
58.2% | -139 |
| 118.5 |
37.9% | +164 |
62.1% | -164 |
| 119.5 |
34.0% | +194 |
66.0% | -194 |
Underdog — projected 110.0
| Line | Over | Odds | Under | Odds |
|---|
| 106 |
64.1% | -199 |
32.2% | +199 |
| 107 |
60.1% | -167 |
35.9% | +167 |
| 108 |
56.1% | -141 |
39.9% | +141 |
| 109 |
52.1% | -119 |
43.9% | +119 |
| 110 |
47.9% | -100 |
47.9% | -100 |
| 111 |
43.9% | +119 |
52.1% | -119 |
| 112 |
39.9% | +141 |
56.1% | -141 |
| 113 |
35.9% | +167 |
60.1% | -167 |
| 114 |
32.2% | +199 |
64.1% | -199 |
Team total = (total ± spread) / 2. Team-total SD 9.7 = √(totalSD² + spreadSD²) / 2. The starred row is the projected team total.
Period Lines — 1Q / 1H / 2H derived from the full game
| Period | Spread | Fair (Fav / Dog) |
Moneyline (Fav / Dog) | Total | O/U Fair |
| 1Q |
Fav -1.5 |
+104 / -104 |
-149 / +149 |
56.5 |
+103 / -103 |
| 1H |
Fav -3 |
+106 / -106 |
-176 / +176 |
113 |
+104 / -104 |
| 2H |
Fav -3 |
+106 / -106 |
-176 / +176 |
113 |
+104 / -104 |
Each period is a fraction of the game (1Q = ¼, 1H/2H = ½): mean = fraction × full line, SD = full SD × √fraction. Fair odds are shown at each period's own line (≈ even by construction).
Teasers — win probability & fair price per teased leg
| Tease | Fav to | Win% | 2-leg fair | 3-leg fair |
Dog to | Win% | 2-leg fair | 3-leg fair |
| 3 |
Fav -2.5 | 60.7% |
+171 | +346 |
Dog +8.5 | 60.7% |
+171 | +346 |
| 3.5 |
Fav -2 | 62.9% |
+153 | +302 |
Dog +9 | 62.9% |
+153 | +302 |
| 4 |
Fav -1.5 | 64.2% |
+143 | +278 |
Dog +9.5 | 64.2% |
+143 | +278 |
| 4.5 |
Fav -1 | 66.4% |
+127 | +242 |
Dog +10 | 66.4% |
+127 | +242 |
| 5 |
Fav -0.5 | 67.5% |
+119 | +225 |
Dog +10.5 | 67.5% |
+119 | +225 |
| 5.5 |
Fav PK | 69.7% |
+106 | +195 |
Dog +11 | 69.7% |
+106 | +195 |
| 6 |
Fav +0.5 | 70.7% |
+100 | +183 |
Dog +11.5 | 70.7% |
+100 | +183 |
| 7 |
Fav +1.5 | 73.8% |
-119 | +149 |
Dog +12.5 | 73.8% |
-119 | +149 |
| Tease | Over to | Win% | 2-leg fair | 3-leg fair |
Under to | Win% | 2-leg fair | 3-leg fair |
| 3 |
222.5 | 57.4% |
+203 | +428 |
228.5 | 57.4% |
+203 | +428 |
| 3.5 |
222 | 58.9% |
+189 | +390 |
229 | 58.9% |
+189 | +390 |
| 4 |
221.5 | 59.9% |
+179 | +366 |
229.5 | 59.9% |
+179 | +366 |
| 4.5 |
221 | 61.3% |
+166 | +334 |
230 | 61.3% |
+166 | +334 |
| 5 |
220.5 | 62.3% |
+158 | +314 |
230.5 | 62.3% |
+158 | +314 |
| 5.5 |
220 | 63.8% |
+146 | +286 |
231 | 63.8% |
+146 | +286 |
| 6 |
219.5 | 64.6% |
+140 | +271 |
231.5 | 64.6% |
+140 | +271 |
| 7 |
218.5 | 66.9% |
+123 | +234 |
232.5 | 66.9% |
+123 | +234 |
Win% is the single teased leg. "N-leg fair" assumes independent legs of
this same quality (win%N) — compare it to the book's fixed teaser price:
a 2-leg price of −120 is only +EV if the 2-leg fair number here is SHORTER than
−120. Pushes reduce (standard rules) and are excluded from win%.
Second Half & Live — halftime pricer
| Spread | Fair (Fav / Dog) |
Moneyline (Fav / Dog) | Total | O/U Fair |
| 2nd Half |
Fav -3 |
+106 / -106 |
-176 / +176 |
113 |
+104 / -104 |
Enter each team's halftime points in the form above to also get the
live full-game line — projected final score, spread, total & moneyline —
implied by that halftime score plus the pregame second-half expectation.
Model. Margin (favorite−underdog) ∼ Normal(mean = spread, SD = Spread SD); total points ∼ Normal(mean = total, SD = Total SD). The current spread/total price at exactly 50% by construction. Moneyline = P(margin > 0).
Total-aware SD (checkbox, on by default): both SDs are multiplied by √(total / league avg), so a high-total game widens the spread distribution and a low-total game tightens it — the spread lines DO react to this game's total. Uncheck for flat league SDs. A typed SD overrides everything (used flat).
League SD / avg-total anchors:
NBA 11.0 / 16.0 @ 225 · WNBA 10.5 / 14.0 @ 162 · Men's CBB 10.0 / 12.5 @ 142 · Women's CBB 10.5 / 13.0 @ 140.
Odds are fair, no-vig American. Whole-number lines include a push band (continuity correction); half-point lines can't push (“—”).