Game SD Bands
Enter a side (spread) and total. See where the margin, the total and each
team's score land at ±1.0, ±1.5 and ±2.0 standard deviations.
Projected Score
115.5 – 110.0
Fair Moneyline
-224 / +224
SDs (Sprd / Tot / Team)
11.0 / 16.0 / 9.7
(scaled x1.001 from league avg total 225)
Margin — Fav minus Opp, mean +5.5, SD 11.0
| Band | Coverage | Low | High |
|---|
| ±1.0 SD |
68.3% |
Opp by 5.5 |
Fav by 16.5 |
| ±1.5 SD |
86.6% |
Opp by 11.0 |
Fav by 22.0 |
| ±2.0 SD |
95.4% |
Opp by 16.5 |
Fav by 27.5 |
Total — mean 225.5, SD 16.0
| Band | Coverage | Range |
|---|
| ±1.0 SD |
68.3% |
209.5 – 241.5 |
| ±1.5 SD |
86.6% |
201.5 – 249.5 |
| ±2.0 SD |
95.4% |
193.5 – 257.5 |
Team Scores — Fav mean 115.5, Opp mean
110.0, SD 9.7 each
| Band | Coverage | Fav | Opp |
|---|
| ±1.0 SD |
68.3% |
105.8 – 125.2 |
100.3 – 119.7 |
| ±1.5 SD |
86.6% |
100.9 – 130.1 |
95.4 – 124.6 |
| ±2.0 SD |
95.4% |
96.1 – 134.9 |
90.6 – 129.4 |
Model. Margin (favorite−underdog) ∼ Normal(mean = spread, SD = Spread SD);
total ∼ Normal(mean = total, SD = Total SD); team score = (total ± margin)/2, so
team SD = √(totalSD² + spreadSD²)/2. Same model and league SDs as the
Spread & Total Pricer.
Coverage is the share of outcomes inside the band: ±1.0 SD ≈ 68.3%,
±1.5 SD ≈ 86.6%, ±2.0 SD ≈ 95.4%.
Total-aware SD (checkbox, on by default): both SDs are multiplied by
√(total / league avg). A typed SD overrides everything (used flat).
League SD / avg-total anchors: NBA 11.0 / 16.0 @ 225 · WNBA 10.5 / 14.0 @ 162
· Men's CBB 10.0 / 12.5 @ 142 · Women's CBB 10.5 / 13.0 @ 140.